美联储议息会议笔记：鹰派降息（2024年12月）

来源：智堡投研

摘要

• 本次会议，美联储降息25bp，至4.25%-4.5%水平，符合预期。隔夜逆回购工具进行技术性调整至联邦基金利率的区间下沿。

• 会议声明的措辞有调整，体现出FOMC考虑后续政策的实施“节奏”和“幅度”都产生了变化。票型也出现了分歧，有委员反对12月降息。

• 经济预测明显体现出对通胀风险的担忧，联储的风险平衡显然再度倒向通胀。点阵图仅暗示明年两次降息，展现出绝对的鹰派倾向。

• 发布会开场白中，鲍威尔提及“more neutral setting”以及对进一步降息的“Cautious”，表态偏鹰派。
  

• 美元/VIX暴涨，美债、美股、黄金、比特币大幅下跌。

声明（粗体为变化）

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee's 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

近期指标表明，经济活动继续以稳健的步伐扩张。自今年年初以来，劳动力市场状况普遍有所缓解，失业率有所上升，但仍保持在较低水平。通货膨胀率已朝着委员会2%的目标迈进，但仍略微偏高。

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

委员会力求在较长时期内实现充分就业和2%的通胀目标。委员会判断，实现就业和通胀目标的风险大致平衡。经济前景不明朗，委员会关注其双重使命的双向风险。

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

为支持其目标，委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25bp至4.25%至 4.5%。在考虑进一步调整联邦基金利率目标区间的幅度和时间时，委员会将仔细评估新收到的数据、不断变化的前景以及风险平衡。委员会将继续减持国债、机构债务和机构抵押贷款支持证券。委员会坚定地致力于支持最大限度的就业，并使通胀率回到 2% 的目标。

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

在评估货币政策的适当立场时，委员会将继续监测所收到的信息对经济前景的影响。如果出现可能阻碍实现委员会目标的风险，委员会将准备酌情调整货币政策的立场。委员会的评估将考虑广泛的信息，包括对劳动力市场状况、通胀压力和通胀预期以及金融和国际发展的解读。

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Thomas I. Barkin; Michael S. Barr; Raphael W. Bostic; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Mary C. Daly; Philip N. Jefferson; Adriana D. Kugler; and Christopher J. Waller. Voting against the action was Beth M. Hammack, who preferred to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent.

投票赞成货币政策行动的有：主席杰罗姆-鲍威尔、副主席约翰-威廉姆斯、托马斯-巴尔金、迈克尔-巴尔、拉斐尔-博斯蒂克、米歇尔-鲍曼、丽莎-库克、玛丽-戴利、菲利普-杰斐逊、阿德里安娜-库格勒和克里斯托弗-沃勒。贝丝-哈马克（Beth M. Hammack）投了反对票，她倾向于将联邦基金利率目标区间维持在4.5%至4.75%。

经济预测和点阵图

上调24/25年的经济预测，下调失业率预测，上调通胀预测，对25年的通胀预测上调幅度较大。

点阵图仅指引明年全年降息两次，展现强烈的鹰派倾向。